Deterministic and probabilistic ship pitch prediction using a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing,reinforcement learning and improved QRNN

The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems.     

空间曲线的特征识别与高质量非均匀采样

为避免传统均匀采样方法因忽视曲线重要特征而生成不理想的采样结果,获得给定数量且由特征点和辅助点组成的采样点序列,提出基于特征识别的高质量空间曲线非均匀采样方法.首先使用抛物线插值法得到曲线上所有曲率极大值点和挠率极大值点的近似位置,经筛选后产生特征点,以更好地抓住空间曲线的轮廓特征.然后定义基于弧长、曲率和挠率加权组合的特征函数,并以此自适应地选取曲线上的辅助点.与3种主流采样方法比较的实验结果表明,该方法能够获得更高质量的采样结果且具有更好的实用性,从而进一步改善空间曲线的B样条拟合效果.     

Optimization of flow in additively manufactured porous columns with graded permeability

Chemical engineering systems often involve a functional porous medium, such as in catalyzed reactive flows, fluid purifiers, and chromatographic separations. Ideally, the flow rates throughout the porous medium are uniform, and all portions of the medium contribute efficiently to its function. The permeability is a property of a porous medium that depends on pore geometry and relates flow rate to pressure drop. Additive manufacturing techniques raise the possibilities that permeability can be arbitrarily specified in three dimensions, and that a broader range of permeabilities can be achieved than by traditional manufacturing methods. Using numerical optimization methods, we show that designs with spatially varying permeability can achieve greater flow uniformity than designs with uniform permeability. We consider geometries involving hemispherical regions that distribute flow, as in many glass chromatography columns. By several measures, significant improvements in flow uniformity can be obtained by modifying permeability only near the inlet and outlet.     

Systematic analysis and multi-objective optimization of an integrated power and freshwater production cycle

This study represents the results of the analysis and optimization of an integrated system for cogenerating electricity and freshwater. This setup consists of a Solid Oxide Fuel cell (SOFC) for producing electricity. Unburned fuel of the SOFC is burned in the afterburner to increase the temperature of the SOFC's outlet gasses and operate a Gas turbine (GT) to produce additional power and operate the air compressor. At the bottom of this cycle, a combined setup of a Multi-Effect Desalination (MED) and Reverse Osmosis (RO) is considered to produce freshwater from the unused heat capacity of the GT's exhaust gasses. Also, a Stirling engine is used in the fuel supply line to increase the fuel's temperature. Using LNG and the Stirling engine will replace the fuel compressor with a pump which increases the system performance and eliminates the need for the expansion valve. To study the system performance a mathematical model is developed in Engineering Equation Solver (EES) program. Then, the system's simulated data from the EES has been sent to MATLAB to promote the best operating condition based on the optimization criteria. An energetic, exergetic, economic, and environmental analysis has been performed and a Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II) is used to achieve the goal. The two-objective optimization is performed to maximize the exergetic efficiency of the proposed system while minimizing the system's total cost of production. This cost is a weighted distribution of the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) and Levelized Cost of freshwater (LCOW). The results showed that the exergetic and energetic efficiencies of the system can reach 73.5% and 69.06% at the optimum point. The total electricity production of the system is 99 MW. The production cost is 11.71 Cents/kWh, of which 1.04 Cents/kWh is emission-related and environmental taxes. The freshwater production rate is 42.44 kg/s which costs 4.38 USD/m³.     

面向智慧小镇建设的机房电气管线多目标优化布置方法

常规的管线布置优化方法难以在优化过程中得到全局搜索的最优解,导致安全性能无法得到保障,因此面向智慧小镇建设设计一个新的机房电气管线多目标优化布置方法。设置电气管线约束条件,将电压均值、单位时间内电流量、电气管线损耗恢复能力作为目标函数。优化管线布置全局搜索,使用交叉操作的方式不断得到更优解。建立多目标优化电气管线模型,得到电气管线多目标优化的数学模型。通过实验数据可知,该管线布置方法在算法测试中优于常规的3种算法,且在安全性能的检测中只与标准最优值相差6.22×10⁴,3个常规方法与标准最优值的差距为6.813×10⁴、7.6×10⁴、8.32×10⁴,因此可知该多目标优化的管线布置方法可以得到更优解。     

Tabular data: Deep learning is not all you need

A key element in solving real-life data science problems is selecting the types of models to use. Tree ensemble models (such as XGBoost) are usually recommended for classification and regression problems with tabular data. However, several deep learning models for tabular data have recently been proposed, claiming to outperform XGBoost for some use cases. This paper explores whether these deep models should be a recommended option for tabular data by rigorously comparing the new deep models to XGBoost on various datasets. In addition to systematically comparing their performance, we consider the tuning and computation they require. Our study shows that XGBoost outperforms these deep models across the datasets, including the datasets used in the papers that proposed the deep models. We also demonstrate that XGBoost requires much less tuning. On the positive side, we show that an ensemble of deep models and XGBoost performs better on these datasets than XGBoost alone.     

西藏燕麦主要种植区灌溉定额空间分布及影响因素

燕麦为西藏自治区典型牧草之一,由于种植区地域辽阔,灌溉试验结果受限,西藏燕麦主要种植区的灌溉定额尚不明确。本文在西藏燕麦主要种植区内选取28个典型站点进行资料收集,遵循农业气候相似原则进行区域划分,基于水量平衡法揭示了西藏燕麦主要种植区灌溉定额的空间分布特征,并根据统计学原理分析了其影响因素。研究表明:燕麦主要种植区的灌溉定额呈由西藏中部至东部呈现先递增后递减的趋势,50%水文年下的燕麦灌溉定额在56~265 mm之间变化。降雨量是影响研究区内燕麦灌溉定额的主要因素(R²为0.515),ET₀次之(R²为0.152);其它气象因素中,日照时数对研究区燕麦灌溉定额影响较大(R²为0.462),且呈正相关关系;相对湿度对燕麦灌溉定额影响较小。西藏燕麦主要种植区的灌溉定额及其空间分布可为西藏自治区灌溉用水管理提供支撑。     

Robust optimal operation of continuous catalytic reforming process under feedstock uncertainty

The continuous catalytic regenerative (CCR) reforming process is one of the most significant sources of hydrogen production in the petroleum refining process. However, the fluctuations in feedstock composition and flow rate could significantly affect both product distribution and energy consumption. In this study, a robust deviation criterion based multi-objective optimization approach is proposed to perform the optimal operation of CCR reformer under feedstock uncertainty, with simultaneous maximization of product yields and minimization of energy consumption. Minimax approach is adopted to handle these uncertain objectives, and the Latin hypercube sampling method is then used to calculate these robust deviation criteria. Multi-objective surrogate-based optimization methods are next introduced to effectively solve the robust operational problem with high computational cost. The level diagram method is finally utilized to assist in multi-criteria decision-making. Two robust operational optimization problems with different objectives are solved to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for robust optimal operation of the CCR reforming process under feedstock uncertainty.     

Development of high pressure membraneless alkaline electrolyzer

A technology for cyclic generation of hydrogen and oxygen using electrodes made of variable valency material that does not need the use of separating ion-exchange membranes is presented. The technological solution enables to fabricate electrolyzers for uninterrupted producing high-pressure hydrogen with reduced energy intensity of the production. The total work for compressing 1 m³ of hydrogen and 0.5 m³ of oxygen has been estimated. Results of investigation of influence of discrete supply of DC current to the electrolysis cell, in order to improve the processes of gas evolution and to simplify the power systems of the electrolysis plant, have been considered. There is also considered an electrolysis installation equipped with a thermosorption compressor in which LaNi₅ is used as a hydride-forming compound. The comparative characteristics of the developed electrolyzer and the currently used hydrogen generators are given.